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Prediction for CME (2017-06-28T16:24:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2017-06-28T16:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/12703/-1 CME Note: Start time of the CME was modified CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-07-01T16:26Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: Max Kp: 5.0 Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-07-03T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) Prediction Method: Other (SIDC) Prediction Method Note: :Issued: 2017 Jun 29 1002 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A long duration event took place near AR 2664 (position N20W30) between 12:30 and 21:00UT on 28 June. This was a very gradual event, with the x-ray flux staying at the B1 level for nearly 5 hours (from about 13UT till 18UT, no x-ray flare reported). SDO/AIA 193 imagery showed coronal dimming to the north and south of AR 2664. CACtus has the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) currently catalogued as 2 separate CMEs, both first seen in LASCO/C2 at 16:24UT. The bulk of this partial halo CME seems to be headed to the southwest, and has an angular width of about 170 degrees. The CME is very weak, and was not identified in the ST-A/COR2 imagery (though another unrelated CME directed to the east can clearly be seen around 16UT). The CME is also moving rather slow, with Plane-of-the-Sky speeds between 175 and 215 km/s, and estimated true speeds of around 275 km/s. A glancing blow from this CME is expected around noon on 03 July +/-12 hours. At most active geomagnetic conditions are expected. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#Lead Time: 54.40 hour(s) Difference: -43.57 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2017-06-29T10:02Z |
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